Will crypto break down or push toward $97K as Bitcoin defends $81,000?

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Oct 20, 2026 · based on the channel Gareth Soloway

Bitcoin is still a two-level market: the crypto bull case lives above $87,200 and the bear case opens below $81,000, with $95,000–$97,000 as the upside magnet and $75,500 then $67,000 as the planned buy zones. That is the framework Gareth Soloway lays out in his breakdown of a session where Bitcoin flushed to about $79,750 before closing back above support. For traders who want tier-one fee pricing on the exchange he charts on, registration through this Coinbase link is the offer attached to the video.

Why the $81,000 line survived another test

Bitcoin hammered the $81,000 support level again and held it, which keeps the bullish structure technically intact even as risk appetite elsewhere deteriorates. The session low near $79,750 was a flush below the line rather than a decisive break, and the close back above $81,000 is what matters for the daily chart.

The context makes that resilience notable: the AI trade and the Nasdaq have been sliding, and crypto has been hanging in there instead of rolling over with high-beta technology names. Soloway's read is that this relative strength is a signal, not noise, but it is not yet a reason to be aggressive.

That is also why he holds no swing position in Bitcoin, long or short, while price sits inside a roughly $6,000 range. In a range, both sides pay for stops and patience is the cheaper position.

Three upside factors that converge near $97,000

Above $87,200, three separate technical factors line up in the $95,000 to $97,000 area, which is why that band matters more than any single indicator. Each factor is independent, and their overlap is what gives the target weight.

1. A rising trend line near $91,000. The trend line drawn from the consolidation projects into the low $90,000s and keeps rising, which is why the same target could stay valid into late November rather than expiring this week.
2. A measured move off the consolidation. The height of the recent range, projected upward from the breakout point, lands at roughly $96,000 to $97,000.
3. Prior pivot highs. The old swing highs sit in the same $95,000–$97,000 pocket, confirming the confluence rather than contradicting it.

The condition is strict: the upside scenario only counts above $87,200. Between $81,000 and $87,200 there is no trade, only a range.

The bear case below $81,000 and the two buy zones

A daily close below $81,000 opens the door to $75,500, and that level is a partial entry rather than a full commitment. Soloway's plan is to buy only 25% there, keeping most of the powder dry in case the slide continues.

The rest is reserved for the $67,000 zone, where he plans to load the remainder of the position. That two-step structure is deliberate: it removes the all-or-nothing decision that ruins most dip-buying attempts.

Asked directly whether he would go all in at $75,500, his answer is no, and the reason is mechanical rather than emotional. A 25% starter position keeps a trader in the game if the level holds while preserving capital if it does not.

He also maintains that the cycle low is in until proven otherwise. That is a working assumption, not a conviction trade, and the $81,000 close is the evidence that would force a reassessment.

Ethereum, HBAR and the altcoin setups worth tracking

Ethereum is trading in a range with a heavy buy zone just below $2,000, which is where Soloway would look for accumulation rather than chasing strength. On the other side, a breakout sets up a retest of $2,800.

The HBAR swing trade was taken with Smart Money Crypto members on a retrace to the scene of the crime, meaning the level where price previously broke down or broke out. The target sits near $0.10, and the setup is a swing trade, not a long-term thesis.

Both examples follow the same logic as Bitcoin: define the level first, size the position second, and let the chart trigger the entry.

What traders actually ask about this setup

Viewers reliably raise the same practical objections, and they are worth addressing directly because they decide whether a plan survives contact with the market.

• No Bitcoin position at all? Sitting flat inside a $6,000 range is a decision, not indecision. The edge comes from waiting for $87,200 or $81,000 to resolve.
• Exchange costs. Several viewers complain that Coinbase fees and spreads are too expensive. The video's answer is tier-one fee pricing through the affiliate sign-up, which applies to accounts idle for 30 days and to viewers who originally joined under someone else's link.
• How do you short on Coinbase? Spot platforms do not offer straightforward shorting, which is one reason the plan leans on scaling into buys at $75,500 and $67,000 instead of pressing a bearish bet.
• Emotional trading. Traders without a written game plan get whipsawed precisely because both levels are close together. Writing down the trigger, the size and the invalidation before the session starts is what keeps emotion out of execution.

Why a game plan beats a prediction

A pre-written game plan is what separates a trader from a spectator, because it converts a forecast into a set of conditional actions. Soloway's structure for Bitcoin is the clearest example: 25% at $75,500, the remainder at $67,000, upside only above $87,200, and nothing in between.

That framework also explains why he keeps his crypto holdings on Coinbase, the platform whose charts he uses for the walkthrough. Familiarity with the execution venue matters as much as the analysis when a level breaks and speed counts.

Frequently asked questions about the crypto setup

See the FAQ section for the direct answers on the $87,200 trigger, the $97,000 target and position sizing.

Bottom line

The takeaway from Gareth Soloway's breakdown is that crypto right now is a level-driven market, not a narrative-driven one. Bitcoin held $81,000 after a flush to about $79,750, which keeps the bullish structure alive, but the upside only activates above $87,200 and the confluence at $95,000–$97,000 is where the measured move, the rising trend line and the prior pivot highs meet. Below $81,000 the plan is disciplined scaling: 25% at $75,500 and the rest at $67,000, with the cycle low treated as intact until the market proves otherwise. Ethereum's sub-$2,000 buy zone and the HBAR swing toward $0.10 follow the same rule of defining levels before sizing trades. For traders who want tier-one fee pricing on the exchange used in the analysis, sign up through the Coinbase registration link before placing the next order.

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